ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Klim Sani4win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pJonn · 14 games
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 12 games
Dark Willow
rue · 11 games
Tusk
aik · 11 games
Luna
Satanic · 8 games
Muertaoften banned
rue · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 8 games
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 8 games
Klim Sani4
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
320 picks · 467 bans
Phoenix
278 picks · 415 bans
Grimstroke
260 picks · 447 bans
Lion
259 picks · 227 bans
Vengeful Spirit
249 picks · 151 bans
Nature's Prophet
241 picks · 691 bans
Pangolier
240 picks · 334 bans
Magnus
234 picks · 375 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% Klim Sani4
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total65% Klim Sani4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:36
Yellow Submarine 35%Klim Sani4 65%
The model gave 65% on Klim Sani4 — the game was taken by Klim Sani4 in 37:15.
Game 2prediction correct5:24
Yellow Submarine 35%Klim Sani4 65%
The model gave 65% on Klim Sani4 — the game was taken by Klim Sani4 in 21:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteKlim Sani4 · 65%
Series resultKlim Sani4 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2