DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HULIGANIwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pJonn · 19 games
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 13 games
Dark Willow
rue · 11 games
Tusk
aik · 11 games
Lunaoften banned
Satanic · 10 games
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 10 games
Puckoften banned
erase · 9 games
HULIGANI
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 8 games
Hoodwink
OneJey · 8 games
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 7 games
Lunaoften banned
RAMZES666 · 7 games
Lion
Immersion · 6 games
Techiessignature
OneJey · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
383 picks · 355 bans
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 574 bans
Mars
349 picks · 529 bans
Vengeful Spirit
346 picks · 336 bans
Techies
343 picks · 269 bans
Batrider
326 picks · 660 bans
Hoodwink
315 picks · 190 bans
Tiny
304 picks · 311 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:38
Yellow Submarine 57%HULIGANI 43%
The model gave 57% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 36:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenSatanic
JuggernautRAMZES666
Queen of Painerase
Pangolierre1bl
Marsemptiness
KunkkaBb3px
Rubickrue
BatriderPanto
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
TechiesOneJey
Game 2prediction correct36:20
Yellow Submarine 56%HULIGANI 44%
The model gave 56% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 34:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaSatanic
JuggernautRAMZES666
Templar Assassinerase
Pangolierre1bl
Marsemptiness
KunkkaBb3px
Techiesrue
HoodwinkOneJey
Pugnaasdekor_r
EnchantressPanto
Game 3prediction missed14:29
Yellow Submarine 53%HULIGANI 47%
The model gave 53% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 36:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Lighterase
MedusaRAMZES666
LifestealerSatanic
Pangolierre1bl
Marsemptiness
Primal BeastBb3px
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
TechiesPanto
Rubickrue
Skywrath MageOneJey
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 60%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3