CCT Season 2 Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Level UPloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 12 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 10 games
Tinyoften banned
bottega · 10 games
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 9 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 9 games
Dark Willowsignature
mrls · 8 games
Doomoften banned
bottega · 8 games
Level UP
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 11 games
Leshrac
Atoufix · 8 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 7 games
Miranasignature
Ponlo · 7 games
Dawnbreakersignature
krol9ash · 6 games
Earthshaker
MaTson · 6 games
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 6 games
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
510 picks · 546 bans
Tiny
413 picks · 425 bans
Tusk
357 picks · 375 bans
Pangolier
342 picks · 510 bans
Terrorblade
322 picks · 704 bans
Nature's Prophet
308 picks · 557 bans
Dark Willow
306 picks · 195 bans
Storm Spirit
298 picks · 438 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% Level UP
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:25
Yellow Submarine 56%Level UP 44%
The model gave 56% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Level UP in 24:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetbottega
Medusarubikon155
Monkey KingMirele
Primal BeastMaTson
EnigmaInfernal
Dark SeerPalantimos
Shadow Shamanmrls
BatriderAtoufix
AbaddonXakoda
UndyingPonlo
Game 2prediction correct36:9
Yellow Submarine 57%Level UP 43%
The model gave 57% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 30:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendbottega
Medusarubikon155
BeastmasterInfernal
AxePalantimos
Monkey KingMirele
Dragon KnightMaTson
DawnbreakerXakoda
WindrangerAtoufix
Shadow Shamanmrls
SilencerPonlo
Game 3prediction correct38:14
Yellow Submarine 58%Level UP 42%
The model gave 58% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 28:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetbottega
Terrorbladerubikon155
LeshracMirele
PangolierMaTson
BeastmasterInfernal
UndyingPalantimos
DisruptorXakoda
WarlockPonlo
Shadow Shamanmrls
WindrangerAtoufix
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 60%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3