CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Level UPloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 17 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 13 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 12 games
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 10 games
Tiny
bottega · 10 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 9 games
Level UP
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 13 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 9 games
Leshrac
Atoufix · 8 games
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 8 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Ankou · 7 games
Miranasignature
Ponlo · 7 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 7 games
Batridersignature
Atoufix · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
577 picks · 577 bans
Tiny
413 picks · 408 bans
Tusk
374 picks · 394 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 520 bans
Dark Willow
334 picks · 202 bans
Terrorblade
328 picks · 705 bans
Nature's Prophet
324 picks · 614 bans
Puck
312 picks · 783 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% Level UP
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total61% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:8
Yellow Submarine 57%Level UP 43%
The model gave 57% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 30:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muertabottega
Terrorbladerubikon155
DawnbreakerInfernal
Dragon KnightMaTson
Ember SpiritMirele
AbaddonPalantimos
Dark Willowmrls
PuckAtoufix
BaneXakoda
DisruptorPonlo
Game 2prediction missed15:21
Yellow Submarine 57%Level UP 43%
The model gave 57% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Level UP in 38:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordbottega
Terrorbladerubikon155
Storm SpiritMirele
Primal BeastMaTson
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
Dark SeerPalantimos
Naga SirenXakoda
MarciAtoufix
Dark Willowmrls
PugnaPonlo
Game 3prediction correct27:13
Yellow Submarine 56%Level UP 44%
The model gave 56% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 35:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muertabottega
Dragon KnightMaTson
PuckMirele
Ursarubikon155
LycanInfernal
BrewmasterPalantimos
Batridermrls
LionAtoufix
EnchantressXakoda
PugnaPonlo
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 61%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3