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RES Regional Series: EU #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MarsBet Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 20 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 15 games
47%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 14 games
64%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Satanic · 12 games
50%
Techies
Techies
rue · 12 games
42%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
erase · 11 games
64%
Tusk
Tusk
aik · 11 games
45%

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 22 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
LeBronDota · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
36%
Lion
Lion
Bignum · 11 games
18%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Lukas · 10 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Mr. Luck · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
438 picks · 711 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
412 picks · 667 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
411 picks · 326 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 359 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
394 picks · 506 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
392 picks · 868 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
370 picks · 164 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
365 picks · 173 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:23
Yellow Submarine 66%MarsBet Team 34%
The model gave 66% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 45:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSatanic
55% · 202 games53% · 85 games
MuertaRetsu
Muerta
Tiny
Tinyerase
46% · 189 games57% · 138 games
LeshracW1sh-
Leshrac
Magnus
Magnusemptiness
49% · 132 games43% · 255 games
MarsMr. Luck
Mars
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterrue
58% · 107 games36% · 205 games
SnapfireBignum
Snapfire
Undying
Undyingasdekor_r
50% · 223 games55% · 170 games
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct25:20
Yellow Submarine 66%MarsBet Team 34%
The model gave 66% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 35:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSatanic
43% · 97 games50% · 166 games
GyrocopterRetsu
Gyrocopter
Razor
Razorerase
52% · 94 games52% · 127 games
LeshracW1sh-
Leshrac
Mars
Marsemptiness
52% · 95 games54% · 112 games
BrewmasterMr. Luck
Brewmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonrue
50% · 94 games47% · 29 games
Shadow ShamanBignum
Shadow Shaman
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
52% · 110 games43% · 56 games
IoLeBronDota
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 76%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2