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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 29 games
62%
Techies
Techies
rue · 23 games
48%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 19 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 19 games
53%
Luna
Luna
Satanic · 18 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 18 games
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 15 games
40%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
erase · 14 games
36%

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Ulnit · 22 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 20 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 19 games
68%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 18 games
72%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 17 games
65%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 14 games
64%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
460 picks · 200 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
448 picks · 670 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
442 picks · 836 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
427 picks · 594 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
411 picks · 179 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
388 picks · 693 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
386 picks · 625 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
385 picks · 296 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:29
Yellow Submarine 44%MOUZ 56%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 36:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
Pangoliererase
53% · 320 games46% · 201 game
Templar AssassinSupream^
Templar Assassin
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSatanic
56% · 219 games42% · 112 games
BloodseekerUlnit
Bloodseeker
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightemptiness
48% · 161 game49% · 171 game
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Dark Willow
Dark Willowrue
53% · 113 games49% · 267 games
TinyNARMAN
Tiny
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterasdekor_r
57% · 164 games48% · 226 games
Crystal Maidenbengan
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct24:34
Yellow Submarine 44%MOUZ 56%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 45:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshracerase
53% · 95 games45% · 164 games
LunaUlnit
Luna
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidSatanic
47% · 193 games51% · 287 games
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Magnus
Magnusemptiness
51% · 149 games51% · 237 games
Keeper of the LightSupream^
Keeper of the Light
Techies
Techiesasdekor_r
50% · 213 games52% · 138 games
Dark WillowNARMAN
Dark Willow
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonrue
51% · 193 games49% · 17 games
Witch Doctorbengan
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 62%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2