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CCT Season 2 Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 22 games
59%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 17 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 16 games
63%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 16 games
38%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
mrls · 15 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 15 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
bottega · 14 games
36%
Tiny
Tiny
bottega · 12 games
50%

MOUZ

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 15 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Ekki · 13 games
46%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Thiolicor · 12 games
25%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 11 games
55%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
BOOM · 11 games
45%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 10 games
70%
Io
Iooften banned
Seleri · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
525 picks · 561 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
386 picks · 228 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
363 picks · 421 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
330 picks · 858 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
328 picks · 477 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
320 picks · 888 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
320 picks · 306 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
293 picks · 376 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:25
Yellow Submarine 42%MOUZ 58%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 35:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
Necrophosbottega
57% · 3 games53% · 279 games
GyrocopterTimado
Gyrocopter
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerInfernal
45% · 306 games48% · 243 games
TimbersawBOOM
Timbersaw
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightDifference
47% · 359 games57% · 287 games
PuckCopy
Puck
Disruptor
DisruptorXakoda
48% · 84 games63% · 113 games
ChenSeleri
Chen
Tusk
Tuskmrls
43% · 494 games51% · 324 games
Dark WillowJANTER
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed32:21
Yellow Submarine 44%MOUZ 56%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 40:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinbottega
49% · 150 games49% · 154 games
Nature's ProphetTimado
Nature's Prophet
Axe
AxeInfernal
38% · 102 games65% · 87 games
Primal BeastBOOM
Primal Beast
Slardar
SlardarDifference
46% · 70 games52% · 136 games
Ember SpiritCopy
Ember Spirit
Naga Siren
Naga SirenXakoda
50% · 125 games44% · 53 games
LeshracJANTER
Leshrac
Snapfire
Snapfiremrls
47% · 100 games57% · 117 games
MarciSeleri
Marci
Game 3prediction missed27:20
Yellow Submarine 45%MOUZ 55%
The model gave 55% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 35:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertabottega
50% · 296 games53% · 187 games
Templar AssassinTimado
Templar Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingDifference
48% · 264 games44% · 337 games
PhoenixCopy
Phoenix
Axe
AxeInfernal
41% · 88 games52% · 193 games
Primal BeastBOOM
Primal Beast
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiXakoda
57% · 130 games54% · 187 games
Nature's ProphetSeleri
Nature's Prophet
Pugna
Pugnamrls
53% · 211 games47% · 85 games
DisruptorJANTER
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 64%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3