Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
No games played over 6 months.
Natus Vincere Junior
Rubick
Daze · 15 games
Dragon Knight
pma · 13 games
Mirana
Daze · 12 games
Techies
Daze · 12 games
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ri4man · 11 games
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 10 games
Magnussignature
pma · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
332 picks · 161 bans
Ember Spirit
249 picks · 329 bans
Pangolier
210 picks · 424 bans
Storm Spirit
207 picks · 318 bans
Dark Seer
204 picks · 385 bans
Beastmaster
198 picks · 431 bans
Skywrath Mage
198 picks · 113 bans
Batrider
190 picks · 286 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 36%
Hero pool strength54% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:35
Yellow Submarine 46%Natus Vincere Junior 54%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 54:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycanegxrdemxn
Troll Warlordgotthejuice
SvenSatanic
Doompma
Dark Willowrue
Primal BeastNiku
Phoenixaik
Shadow DemonDaze
50% · 72 games
Vengeful SpiritRiddys
Game 2prediction correct7:49
Yellow Submarine 45%Natus Vincere Junior 55%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 36:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinSatanic
Slarkgotthejuice
Brewmasteregxrdemxn
Primal BeastNiku
Shadow Demonrue
Bloodseekerpma
Enchantressaik
Dark WillowDaze
40% · 41 game
GrimstrokeRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 60%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2