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CCT Season 2 Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 29 games
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 25 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
mrls · 25 games
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 24 games
42%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 24 games
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 24 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 22 games
41%
Muerta
Muerta
bottega · 22 games
59%

Natus Vincere Junior

Ursa
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 12 games
17%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Gothic- · 11 games
27%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Gothic- · 10 games
20%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Hyugadoto · 9 games
11%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gbc · 9 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 9 games
11%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Hyugadoto · 9 games
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Gothic- · 9 games
11%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
610 picks · 937 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
520 picks · 418 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
473 picks · 620 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
427 picks · 571 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
427 picks · 952 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
404 picks · 250 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
398 picks · 448 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 659 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 17%
Hero pool strength67% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total91% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:32
Yellow Submarine 78%Natus Vincere Junior 22%
The model gave 78% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 49:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterInfernal
36% · 79 games51% · 54 games
RazorStoneBank
Razor
Batrider
BatriderDifference
51% · 187 games58% · 74 games
Earthshakergbc
Earthshaker
Morphling
Morphlingbottega
53% · 130 games49% · 23 games
Largokrol9ash
Largo
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeprblms
42% · 37 games53% · 74 games
Bounty HunterGothic-
Bounty Hunter
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiHtrd
63% · 32 games50% · 240 games
JakiroHyugadoto
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct39:8
Yellow Submarine 77%Natus Vincere Junior 23%
The model gave 77% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 35:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
Zeusbottega
44% · 30 games53% · 206 games
BristlebackStoneBank
Bristleback
Underlord
UnderlordInfernal
44% · 88 games46% · 55 games
Tinkergbc
Tinker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDifference
50% · 215 games52% · 73 games
Razorkrol9ash
Razor
Batrider
Batriderprblms
46% · 177 games56% · 98 games
DazzleHyugadoto
Dazzle
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiHtrd
51% · 24 games56% · 102 games
Bounty HunterGothic-
Bounty Hunter
Game 3prediction correct27:9
Yellow Submarine 78%Natus Vincere Junior 22%
The model gave 78% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 27:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerbottega
51% · 106 games53% · 264 games
Puckgbc
Puck
Underlord
UnderlordInfernal
48% · 120 games50% · 166 games
SvenStoneBank
Sven
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDifference
46% · 336 games49% · 261 game
Batriderkrol9ash
Batrider
Windranger
Windrangerprblms
48% · 200 games55% · 125 games
DazzleHyugadoto
Dazzle
Ringmaster
RingmasterHtrd
49% · 235 games51% · 181 game
MarciGothic-
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 91%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3