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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
rue · 11 games
27%
Tusk
Tusk
aik · 11 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
pJonn · 10 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 9 games
56%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
rue · 8 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 8 games
13%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 8 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
aik · 8 games
13%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 18 games
56%
Lion
Lionsignature
so bad · 13 games
77%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Hellscream · 10 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
RodjER · 8 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Corrupted · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
forcemajor · 7 games
29%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
forcemajor · 7 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
v1olent- · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
299 picks · 435 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
273 picks · 409 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
228 picks · 205 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
228 picks · 207 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
226 picks · 637 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
223 picks · 114 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
216 picks · 308 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 58%
Hero pool strength59% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:27
Yellow Submarine 35%Nemiga Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 34:33.
Game 2prediction missed20:6
Yellow Submarine 40%Nemiga Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 31:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSatanic
48% · 317 games45% · 166 games
Terrorbladev1olent-
Terrorblade
Tiny
Tinyerase
51% · 345 games47% · 233 games
Ember Spiritxn丶e
Ember Spirit
Magnus
Magnusemptiness
50% · 259 games55% · 115 games
Tidehunterzenica
Tidehunter
53% · 207 games
TechiesHellscream
Techies
49% · 200 games
Nature's Prophetaik
Nature's Prophet
Game 3prediction missed25:11
Yellow Submarine 43%Nemiga Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 41:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSatanic
48% · 191 game49% · 24 games
Troll Warlordv1olent-
Troll Warlord
Razor
Razorerase
47% · 46 games58% · 99 games
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneremptiness
50% · 149 games57% · 97 games
Magnuszenica
Magnus
46% · 113 games
Phoenixaik
Phoenix
44% · 53 games
HoodwinkHellscream
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 65%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3