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EPL Masters III · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Lich
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 33 games
70%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 21 game
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Xakoda · 20 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
prblms · 19 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Shigetsu · 19 games
68%
Batrider
Batrider
Wein · 16 games
50%
Kez
Kezsignature
Shigetsu · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Rain · 14 games
57%

Nemiga Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 30 games
50%
Techies
Techies
ariel · 23 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Covisnine · 22 games
32%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 19 games
32%
Rubick
Rubick
ariel · 17 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 16 games
38%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 15 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Covisnine · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
508 picks · 314 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
436 picks · 218 bans
52%
Mirana
Mirana
391 picks · 176 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
339 picks · 307 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 493 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
298 picks · 284 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
275 picks · 503 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
274 picks · 130 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 29%
Hero pool strength59% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total80% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:27
Yellow Submarine 66%Nemiga Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 43:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladerincyq
43% · 123 games51% · 105 games
Lycantakizawa
Lycan
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightRain
45% · 67 games52% · 82 games
Necrophosbyun
Necrophos
Tidehunter
Tidehuntermangekyou
50% · 92 games56% · 23 games
Outworld Destroyeryoung G
Outworld Destroyer
Lich
Lichaik
50% · 87 games49% · 155 games
Techiesariel
Techies
Windranger
Windrangerprblms
50% · 189 games57% · 193 games
BaneVaniLLl
Bane
Game 2prediction correct25:20
Yellow Submarine 69%Nemiga Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 36:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Magerincyq
59% · 12 games46% · 89 games
Lycantakizawa
Lycan
Pangolier
PangolierRain
53% · 176 games49% · 125 games
Ursabyun
Ursa
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightmangekyou
48% · 154 games42% · 19 games
Outworld Destroyeryoung G
Outworld Destroyer
Techies
Techiesprblms
53% · 139 games51% · 234 games
Windrangerariel
Windranger
Lich
Lichaik
50% · 61 game49% · 75 games
Witch DoctorVaniLLl
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 80%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2