CCT Season 2 Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 22 games
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 18 games
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 16 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 16 games
Dark Willow
mrls · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 15 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
bottega · 14 games
Axesignature
Infernal · 13 games
OG
Jakiro
Kidaro · 23 games
Tiny
Stormstormer · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 15 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 13 games
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 13 games
Ringmaster
Kidaro · 12 games
Tuskoften banned
Daze · 12 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
524 picks · 560 bans
Dark Willow
388 picks · 230 bans
Tusk
364 picks · 421 bans
Puck
331 picks · 867 bans
Pangolier
327 picks · 481 bans
Batrider
321 picks · 897 bans
Tiny
319 picks · 305 bans
Nature's Prophet
292 picks · 636 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total56% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:27
Yellow Submarine 46%OG 54%
The model gave 54% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 35:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancerbottega
Templar AssassinShad
Queen of PainDifference
Dragon KnightStormstormer
UnderlordInfernal
BeastmasterMikSa`
EnchantressXakoda
DisruptorLelis
Tuskmrls
MarciDaze
Game 2prediction correct17:28
Yellow Submarine 50%OG 50%
The model gave 50% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 33:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muertabottega
LeshracStormstormer
Monkey KingDifference
Faceless VoidShad
UndyingInfernal
PhoenixMikSa`
Snapfiremrls
DisruptorLelis
Ogre MagiXakoda
MarciDaze
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 56%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2