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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 1:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
One Moveloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 32 games
63%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 29 games
48%
Techies
Techies
rue · 28 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 25 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
rue · 20 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 19 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 19 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
asdekor_r · 18 games
61%

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 12 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 10 games
10%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Wein · 10 games
30%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 9 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 9 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
WoE · 9 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
xn丶e · 9 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SSS · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
393 picks · 715 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
330 picks · 274 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
330 picks · 636 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
323 picks · 219 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
321 picks · 472 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
321 picks · 372 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
300 picks · 349 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
300 picks · 538 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:36
Yellow Submarine 53%One Move 47%
The model gave 53% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 50:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSatanic
49% · 128 games57% · 29 games
HuskarSquad1x
Huskar
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritxn丶e
50% · 97 games52% · 270 games
GyrocopterWoE
Gyrocopter
Brewmaster
Brewmasterkasane
54% · 107 games50% · 159 games
DoomSSS
Doom
Batrider
Batriderrue
49% · 147 games41% · 56 games
JakiroRein
Jakiro
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionasdekor_r
49% · 35 games
Game 2prediction missed14:32
Yellow Submarine 56%One Move 44%
The model gave 56% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by One Move in 25:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSatanic
51% · 162 games49% · 160 games
LifestealerWoE
Lifestealer
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendxn丶e
49% · 45 games49% · 182 games
WindrangerSquad1x
Windranger
Underlord
Underlordkasane
41% · 52 games50% · 236 games
Primal BeastSSS
Primal Beast
Batrider
Batriderrue
53% · 174 games55% · 69 games
JakiroRein
Jakiro
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
53% · 214 games
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2