BLAST Slam IV. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Pipsqueak+4loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 20 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 17 games
Void Spiritsignature
Mirele · 17 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Mirele · 16 games
Muertasignature
bottega · 16 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 16 games
Pipsqueak+4
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 5 games
Dragon Knight
xn丶e · 5 games
Silenceroften banned
Kidaro · 5 games
Warlock
Kidaro · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 4 games
Undyingoften banned
Palantimos · 4 games
Earthshakeroften banned
xn丶e · 3 games
Phoenix
Kaori · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
289 picks · 701 bans
Shadow Shaman
278 picks · 178 bans
Disruptor
256 picks · 232 bans
Dawnbreaker
254 picks · 653 bans
Tusk
248 picks · 252 bans
Dark Willow
245 picks · 106 bans
Marci
245 picks · 616 bans
Pugna
242 picks · 253 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 81%
Hero pool strength61% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:23
Yellow Submarine 49%Pipsqueak+4 51%
The model gave 51% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 35:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanInfernal
MarsNande
PangolierMirele
Leshracxn丶e
Troll Warlordbottega
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Hoodwinksayuw
PhoenixKaori
Elder TitanXakoda
SilencerKidaro
Game 2prediction missed28:14
Yellow Submarine 48%Pipsqueak+4 52%
The model gave 52% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 32:22.
Game 3prediction missed35:26
Yellow Submarine 48%Pipsqueak+4 52%
The model gave 52% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 41:58.
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 52%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3