CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Runa Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 30 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 26 games
Disruptoroften banned
Xakoda · 26 games
Tusk
mrls · 26 games
Snapfire
sayuw · 25 games
Void Spiritsignature
Mirele · 23 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 22 games
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
Runa Team
Batridersignature
queezy · 51 game
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 50 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 49 games
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 44 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 41 game
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 40 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 38 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 37 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
740 picks · 350 bans
Disruptor
605 picks · 639 bans
Hoodwink
522 picks · 276 bans
Puck
437 picks · 1183 bans
Mars
426 picks · 697 bans
Tusk
422 picks · 268 bans
Dragon Knight
419 picks · 450 bans
Jakiro
369 picks · 236 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Runa Team
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total63% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:23
Yellow Submarine 41%Runa Team 59%
The model gave 59% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 27:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritMirele
Terrorbladenesfeer
Dragon Knightbottega
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
AbaddonInfernal
MarciAlberkaaa
Tuskprblms
Snapfirequeezy
Ancient ApparitionHtrd
JakiroHduo
Game 2prediction missed38:18
Yellow Submarine 42%Runa Team 58%
The model gave 58% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 43:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightbottega
Templar Assassinnesfeer
Void SpiritMirele
MarciAlberkaaa
WarlockHtrd
Batridernicky`cool
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
Snapfirequeezy
Bounty Hunterprblms
TuskHduo
Game 3prediction correct20:47
Yellow Submarine 42%Runa Team 58%
The model gave 58% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 44:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritMirele
Gyrocopternesfeer
Ursabottega
PangolierAlberkaaa
SlardarInfernal
Earthshakernicky`cool
WarlockHtrd
Hoodwinkqueezy
Tuskprblms
DisruptorHduo
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 63%
Series resultRuna Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3