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PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Rune Eatersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 33 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 26 games
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 22 games
36%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 21 game
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 21 game
33%
Warlock
Warlock
Htrd · 21 game
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 20 games
55%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
50%

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 58 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 51 game
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 46 games
48%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 40 games
43%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 35 games
46%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 33 games
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Htrd · 31 game
58%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
81%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
637 picks · 816 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
560 picks · 580 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
458 picks · 401 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
451 picks · 300 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
407 picks · 1049 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 681 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 605 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
365 picks · 967 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:40
Yellow Submarine 46%Rune Eaters 54%
The model gave 54% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 37:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezShigetsu
52% · 93 games50% · 238 games
Templar Assassinyowaai
Templar Assassin
Viper
ViperBatyuk
49% · 105 games45% · 150 games
KunkkaEthereal
Kunkka
Tiny
TinyRain
46% · 517 games49% · 124 games
BrewmasterAnkou
Brewmaster
Marci
Marcinot me
55% · 244 games49% · 253 games
DisruptorKidaro
Disruptor
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonXakoda
55% · 328 games50% · 522 games
Tuskani-san
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed42:29
Yellow Submarine 49%Rune Eaters 51%
The model gave 51% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 46:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaShigetsu
51% · 313 games54% · 385 games
Beastmasteryowaai
Beastmaster
Kunkka
KunkkaBatyuk
48% · 228 games49% · 68 games
LinaEthereal
Lina
Huskar
HuskarRain
54% · 109 games50% · 270 games
PhoenixAnkou
Phoenix
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonnot me
51% · 406 games50% · 531 game
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroXakoda
48% · 752 games46% · 554 games
Tuskani-san
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed42:23
Yellow Submarine 47%Rune Eaters 53%
The model gave 53% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 40:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerRain
49% · 93 games47% · 470 games
Dragon Knightyowaai
Dragon Knight
Razor
RazorShigetsu
51% · 124 games46% · 16 games
ZeusEthereal
Zeus
Mars
MarsBatyuk
52% · 456 games48% · 152 games
ViperAnkou
Viper
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonnot me
53% · 396 games51% · 586 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroXakoda
51% · 722 games49% · 567 games
Tuskani-san
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 54%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3