?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SIBE Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 27 games
63%
Techies
Techies
rue · 20 games
45%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 18 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 18 games
50%
Luna
Luna
Satanic · 17 games
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 14 games
43%
Tusk
Tusk
aik · 14 games
50%

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 20 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 11 games
27%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 11 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 10 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 9 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 8 games
38%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
ряф^^ · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
452 picks · 199 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
444 picks · 670 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
437 picks · 838 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
422 picks · 587 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
411 picks · 180 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
385 picks · 626 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
385 picks · 677 bans
52%
Techies
Techies
383 picks · 297 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total82% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:25
Yellow Submarine 70%SIBE Team 30%
The model gave 70% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 42:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSatanic
50% · 136 games35% · 31 game
Drow Rangerselfhate
Drow Ranger
Razor
Razoremptiness
45% · 111 games50% · 210 games
Kunkkaряф^^
Kunkka
Primal Beast
Primal Beasterase
53% · 166 games54% · 209 games
MiranaSOhY
Mirana
Techies
Techiesasdekor_r
54% · 326 games47% · 466 games
Rubicksunset
Rubick
Tiny
Tinyrue
58% · 177 games
Game 2prediction missed24:54
Yellow Submarine 69%SIBE Team 31%
The model gave 69% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 45:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageSatanic
54% · 46 games47% · 241 game
Pangolierряф^^
Pangolier
Razor
Razorerase
45% · 106 games36% · 6 games
Rikiselfhate
Riki
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightemptiness
57% · 134 games49% · 206 games
Lionsunset
Lion
Dark Willow
Dark Willowrue
53% · 102 games52% · 213 games
Crystal MaidenSOhY
Crystal Maiden
Batrider
Batriderasdekor_r
47% · 278 games
Game 3prediction correct28:5
Yellow Submarine 69%SIBE Team 31%
The model gave 69% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 29:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSatanic
48% · 190 games47% · 254 games
Terrorbladeselfhate
Terrorblade
Puck
Puckerase
58% · 195 games47% · 410 games
Pangolierряф^^
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneremptiness
49% · 218 games53% · 146 games
Dark Willowsunset
Dark Willow
Techies
Techiesasdekor_r
51% · 309 games46% · 313 games
Crystal MaidenSOhY
Crystal Maiden
Tiny
Tinyrue
53% · 211 games
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 82%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3