Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SIBE Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
emptiness · 28 games
Techies
rue · 28 games
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 21 game
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 21 game
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 20 games
Luna
Satanic · 20 games
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 18 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 18 games
SIBE Team
Rubick
sunset · 30 games
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 21 game
Gyrocopter
SOhY · 17 games
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 15 games
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 15 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
ряф^^ · 14 games
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
465 picks · 219 bans
Tiny
421 picks · 659 bans
Centaur Warrunner
405 picks · 575 bans
Gyrocopter
403 picks · 374 bans
Batrider
400 picks · 717 bans
Rubick
372 picks · 158 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 754 bans
Shadow Demon
332 picks · 947 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total66% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:6
Yellow Submarine 60%SIBE Team 40%
The model gave 60% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 31:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinerase
Phantom Lancerselfhate
UrsaSatanic
Sand Kingряф^^
Centaur Warrunnerkasane
Hoodwinksunset
Batriderasdekor_r
WarlockSOhY
Game 2prediction correct30:11
Yellow Submarine 57%SIBE Team 43%
The model gave 57% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 37:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautSatanic
Chaos Knightselfhate
Zeuserase
Sand Kingряф^^
Slardarkasane
Weaversunset
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
PhoenixSOhY
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 66%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2