?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 36 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Lynxwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 34 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 21 game
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 21 game
48%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
Htrd · 16 games
56%
Muerta
Muertasignature
bottega · 15 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
prblms · 15 games
47%

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 24 games
58%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 23 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 20 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 20 games
65%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 19 games
53%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 18 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 18 games
61%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
7jesu · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
649 picks · 683 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
525 picks · 448 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
503 picks · 422 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
447 picks · 443 bans
54%
Warlock
Warlock
435 picks · 287 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
412 picks · 1112 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 869 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
405 picks · 190 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Team Lynx
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total60% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Yellow Submarine 40%Team Lynx 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx.
Game 2prediction correct
Yellow Submarine 40%Team Lynx 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 60%
Series resultTeam Lynx 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2