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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Nemesisloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Htrd · 32 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 26 games
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 24 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 21 game
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 20 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 18 games
33%
Warlock
Warlock
Htrd · 18 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Mirele · 17 games
53%

Team Nemesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 18 games
44%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mac · 18 games
61%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 16 games
38%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Mac · 15 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
NARMAN · 11 games
36%
Muerta
Muerta
Jhocam · 11 games
55%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 11 games
45%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Q · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
596 picks · 921 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 424 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
480 picks · 519 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
439 picks · 297 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
417 picks · 1063 bans
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 581 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
397 picks · 574 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
392 picks · 673 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:8
Yellow Submarine 46%Team Nemesis 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 43:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMirele
46% · 538 games51% · 142 games
Kez23savage
Kez
Muerta
Muertabottega
53% · 262 games47% · 575 games
PuckMac
Puck
Mars
MarsInfernal
48% · 471 game48% · 304 games
BristlebackJabz
Bristleback
Warlock
WarlockHtrd
50% · 538 games57% · 382 games
Shadow DemonQ
Shadow Demon
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanprblms
50% · 406 games50% · 812 games
JakiroJaunuel
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed30:14
Yellow Submarine 44%Team Nemesis 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 45:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursabottega
53% · 222 games47% · 154 games
Sven23savage
Sven
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMirele
50% · 163 games51% · 254 games
SlardarMac
Slardar
Brewmaster
BrewmasterInfernal
47% · 76 games55% · 163 games
Primal BeastJabz
Primal Beast
Warlock
WarlockHtrd
48% · 317 games55% · 180 games
MuertaQ
Muerta
Dark Willow
Dark Willowprblms
47% · 175 games48% · 202 games
PhoenixJaunuel
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 58%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2