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European Pro League Season 36 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 34 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 21 game
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 21 game
48%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
Htrd · 16 games
56%
Muerta
Muertasignature
bottega · 15 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
prblms · 15 games
47%

Team Spirit Academy

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 20 games
25%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
kyford · 18 games
22%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 15 games
53%
Lion
Lion
Aidar · 15 games
47%
Warlock
Warlock
kyford · 15 games
27%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
kyford · 14 games
36%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 13 games
46%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
SunshineRR · 12 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
644 picks · 695 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
522 picks · 456 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
497 picks · 416 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
435 picks · 290 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
427 picks · 411 bans
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
404 picks · 1107 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
394 picks · 852 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 628 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 24%
Hero pool strength62% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total88% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Yellow Submarine 88%Team Spirit Academy 12%
The model gave 88% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Game 2prediction correct
Yellow Submarine 88%Team Spirit Academy 12%
The model gave 88% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 88%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2