Paragon Turbina · BO1
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:1series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Spirit Academywin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Ringmastersignature
Xakoda · 37 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Mirele · 23 games
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 17 games
Batridersignature
not me · 15 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 14 games
Windranger
Shigetsu · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
Batyuk · 13 games
Tinysignature
Shigetsu · 13 games
Team Spirit Academy
Grimstroke
Aidar · 19 games
Lion
Aidar · 17 games
Kunkka
86 · 14 games
Largooften banned
kae · 13 games
Brewmasteroften banned
kae · 11 games
Dark Willow
Aidar · 11 games
Jakiro
kyford · 10 games
Batrideroften banned
86 · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
496 picks · 355 bans
Rubick
384 picks · 233 bans
Clockwerk
338 picks · 637 bans
Tiny
337 picks · 346 bans
Windranger
316 picks · 230 bans
Pangolier
299 picks · 396 bans
Bane
295 picks · 284 bans
Storm Spirit
286 picks · 313 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 48%
Hero pool strength58% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total75% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:26
Yellow Submarine 63%Team Spirit Academy 37%
The model gave 63% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 44:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendbottega
Puck86
ViperRain
GrimstrokeAidar
Slardarkae
Treant ProtectorXakoda
RingmasterWein
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 75%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1