CCT Season 2 Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TNL DOTAwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Shadow Shamanoften banned
mrls · 22 games
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 17 games
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 15 games
Dark Willow
mrls · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 15 games
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 15 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 13 games
Tiny
bottega · 12 games
TNL DOTA
Dark Willow
Fernans · 21 game
Tuskoften banned
Fernans · 19 games
Marcisignature
Fernans · 18 games
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 18 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 17 games
Batridersignature
Fernans · 13 games
Undyingoften banned
flacko · 13 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
536 picks · 569 bans
Dark Willow
385 picks · 227 bans
Tusk
368 picks · 421 bans
Pangolier
331 picks · 484 bans
Puck
328 picks · 865 bans
Tiny
324 picks · 320 bans
Batrider
317 picks · 886 bans
Terrorblade
303 picks · 671 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% TNL DOTA
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total54% TNL DOTA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:29
Yellow Submarine 50%TNL DOTA 50%
The model gave 50% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 46:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetbottega
Medusayowaai
Dark SeerInfernal
Primal Beastdualrazee
Void SpiritDifference
DazzleNorma
Batridermrls
Naga Sirenflacko
PugnaXakoda
LeshracFernans
Game 2prediction correct8:29
Yellow Submarine 47%TNL DOTA 53%
The model gave 53% on TNL DOTA — the game was taken by TNL DOTA in 34:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svenbottega
Doomyowaai
BeastmasterInfernal
Puckdualrazee
Dragon KnightDifference
PangolierNorma
Bounty Huntermrls
Warlockflacko
RingmasterXakoda
TuskFernans
Model check result
Model favoriteTNL DOTA · 54%
Series resultTNL DOTA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2