PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
VValinorloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 27 games
Void Spirit
Mirele · 26 games
Snapfire
mrls · 25 games
Disruptor
Xakoda · 24 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 22 games
Tusk
prblms · 22 games
Muertasignature
bottega · 21 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Mirele · 21 game
Valinor
Jakirooften banned
Stoic · 6 games
Tinyoften banned
G.T.I · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Wuiter · 5 games
Tusk
Stoic · 5 games
Kunkka
Wuiter · 4 games
Phoenix
Wuiter · 4 games
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 4 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Wuiter · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
530 picks · 864 bans
Tusk
511 picks · 378 bans
Dragon Knight
469 picks · 632 bans
Centaur Warrunner
455 picks · 589 bans
Shadow Demon
395 picks · 815 bans
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 574 bans
Mars
343 picks · 482 bans
Gyrocopter
341 picks · 568 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Valinor
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:15
Yellow Submarine 59%Valinor 41%
The model gave 59% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 49:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritMirele
TimbersawG.T.I
Lifestealerbottega
GyrocopterCoblackk
EnigmaInfernal
Centaur WarrunnerWuiter
RingmasterHtrd
Ogre MagiStoic
Largoprblms
Skywrath MageJeezy
Game 2prediction missed42:38
Yellow Submarine 61%Valinor 39%
The model gave 61% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Valinor in 49:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritMirele
KezCoblackk
Batriderbottega
Ember SpiritG.T.I
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
UnderlordWuiter
Grimstrokeprblms
Shadow DemonJeezy
Ogre MagiHtrd
Shadow ShamanStoic
Game 3prediction correct32:23
Yellow Submarine 59%Valinor 41%
The model gave 59% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 45:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursabottega
Troll WarlordCoblackk
Outworld DestroyerMirele
TidehunterWuiter
BatriderInfernal
Ember SpiritG.T.I
Earth Spiritprblms
RingmasterJeezy
Ogre MagiHtrd
Shadow ShamanStoic
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 68%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3