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European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
re1bl · 14 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mrls · 11 games
55%
Muerta
Muertasignature
mrls · 9 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
mrls · 8 games
63%
Doom
Doomoften banned
ififall · 8 games
25%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ififall · 8 games
50%
Axe
Axesignature
Infernal · 6 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ififall · 6 games
33%

Zero Tenacity

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 26 games
31%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
38%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 24 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 24 games
29%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 24 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 24 games
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 24 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Retsu · 23 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
525 picks · 590 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
473 picks · 240 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
435 picks · 480 bans
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
420 picks · 348 bans
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
391 picks · 839 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
384 picks · 366 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
372 picks · 542 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 541 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:35
Yellow Submarine 58%Zero Tenacity 42%
The model gave 58% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 33:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinybottega
52% · 371 game50% · 152 games
LifestealerNande
Lifestealer
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerInfernal
49% · 195 games51% · 401 game
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirele
48% · 233 games50% · 228 games
PuckStojkov
Puck
Ringmaster
Ringmastermrls
47% · 116 games52% · 163 games
EnchantressSe
Enchantress
Death Prophet
Death ProphetXakoda
52% · 43 games46% · 14 games
Pudgeyamich
Pudge
Game 2prediction missed15:29
Yellow Submarine 59%Zero Tenacity 41%
The model gave 59% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 38:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingbottega
44% · 218 games50% · 144 games
LifestealerNande
Lifestealer
Tiny
TinyMirele
54% · 311 games53% · 296 games
PuckStojkov
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
45% · 135 games52% · 78 games
AxeNefrit
Axe
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonmrls
54% · 230 games55% · 222 games
EnchantressSe
Enchantress
Ringmaster
RingmasterXakoda
49% · 90 games44% · 244 games
Dark Willowyamich
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 67%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2