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PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 30 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 23 games
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 19 games
37%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 16 games
56%
Muerta
Muertasignature
bottega · 16 games
63%
Warlock
Warlock
Htrd · 16 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 14 games
57%

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 45 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
MoOz · 42 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 39 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 38 games
47%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Nefrit · 35 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Worick · 28 games
57%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
56%
Warlock
Warlock
MoOz · 27 games
48%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
674 picks · 824 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
562 picks · 555 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
500 picks · 417 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
465 picks · 328 bans
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
412 picks · 1137 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 674 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
393 picks · 611 bans
48%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
391 picks · 1022 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head5 – 8
Model total52% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:6
Yellow Submarine 48%Zero Tenacity 52%
The model gave 52% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 30:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaShigetsu
45% · 34 games60% · 126 games
LargoNefrit
Largo
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
42% · 67 games51% · 109 games
ViperWorick
Viper
Void Spirit
Void SpiritRain
44% · 60 games51% · 54 games
AlchemistKami
Alchemist
Ringmaster
RingmasterXakoda
54% · 89 games43% · 92 games
Spirit BreakerdEsire
Spirit Breaker
Tusk
Tusknot me
52% · 152 games54% · 21 game
LichMoOz
Lich
Game 2prediction missed31:27
Yellow Submarine 48%Zero Tenacity 52%
The model gave 52% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 50:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaShigetsu
44% · 86 games48% · 164 games
TerrorbladeKami
Terrorblade
Huskar
HuskarRain
55% · 72 games55% · 96 games
Sand KingWorick
Sand King
Tidehunter
TidehunterATF
55% · 196 games51% · 148 games
UnderlordNefrit
Underlord
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamannot me
53% · 369 games47% · 154 games
PhoenixMoOz
Phoenix
Oracle
OracleXakoda
46% · 52 games46% · 213 games
RingmasterdEsire
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 52%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2