European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
YNGBLDloss 1:2series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
YNGBLD
No games played over 6 months.
MOUZ
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 25 games
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 24 games
Witch Doctor
bengan · 24 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 23 games
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 22 games
Jakiro
bengan · 21 game
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 20 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
486 picks · 674 bans
Clockwerk
424 picks · 496 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 539 bans
Dark Willow
358 picks · 184 bans
Luna
331 picks · 442 bans
Batrider
326 picks · 348 bans
Enchantress
314 picks · 597 bans
Dragon Knight
311 picks · 552 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% YNGBLD
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
YNGBLD 16%MOUZ 84%
The model gave 84% on MOUZ — the game was taken by YNGBLD.
Game 2prediction correct
YNGBLD 16%MOUZ 84%
The model gave 84% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ.
Game 3prediction correct
YNGBLD 16%MOUZ 84%
The model gave 84% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 84%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3