?
arrow_backBack to match
1x Series · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Bramewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

YNT

Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 9 games
56%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 8 games
38%
Tiny
Tiny
DarkLord^ · 8 games
25%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
29%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 7 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 6 games
33%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
DarkLord^ · 6 games
50%
Bane
Bane
dSa · 5 games
60%

Brame

Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
dEsire · 16 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
ThuG · 15 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
SsaSpartan · 14 games
79%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 13 games
38%
Tiny
Tiny
W1sh- · 12 games
33%
Viper
Vipersignature
SkyLark · 12 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
dEsire · 11 games
36%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
SkyLark · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
737 picks · 565 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
526 picks · 1037 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
471 picks · 624 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
433 picks · 775 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
370 picks · 404 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
342 picks · 175 bans
49%
Zeus
Zeus
325 picks · 379 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
316 picks · 606 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 42%
Hero pool strength59% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:7
YNT 49%Brame 51%
The model gave 51% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 29:22.
Game 2prediction correct43:7
YNT 49%Brame 51%
The model gave 51% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 28:55.
Game 3prediction correct42:24
YNT 49%Brame 51%
The model gave 51% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 34:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 51%
Series resultBrame 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3