Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
YNTwin 1:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:0
CC-Generationloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
YNT
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 10 games
Grimstroke
jesv · 9 games
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
DarkLord^ · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 8 games
Bane
dSa · 7 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
C-Generation
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
467 picks · 648 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 484 bans
Bane
448 picks · 275 bans
Sand King
422 picks · 573 bans
Dragon Knight
374 picks · 435 bans
Storm Spirit
372 picks · 623 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 552 bans
Death Prophet
339 picks · 802 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% C-Generation
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% C-Generation
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
YNT 40%C-Generation 60%
The model gave 60% on C-Generation — the game was taken by YNT.
Model check result
Model favoriteC-Generation · 60%
Series resultYNT 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1