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Winline Insight · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTloss 1:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HFwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

YNT

Mars
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 10 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
jesv · 9 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
44%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 9 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
DarkLord^ · 9 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 8 games
25%
Bane
Bane
dSa · 7 games
57%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
29%

HF

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 14 games
71%
Mirana
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 13 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 12 games
58%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Malady · 8 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 8 games
75%
Io
Iosignature
Kaori · 7 games
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
469 picks · 651 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
464 picks · 440 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
448 picks · 274 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
412 picks · 562 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
405 picks · 485 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 652 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 561 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
340 picks · 295 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 62%
Hero pool strength62% HF
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total69% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
YNT 31%HF 69%
The model gave 69% on HF — the game was taken by YNT.
Game 2prediction correct
YNT 31%HF 69%
The model gave 69% on HF — the game was taken by HF.
Game 3prediction correct
YNT 31%HF 69%
The model gave 69% on HF — the game was taken by HF.
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 69%
Series resultHF 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3