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Winline Insight Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HFloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

YNT

Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
44%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 9 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
DarkLord^ · 9 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 8 games
25%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 8 games
50%
Bane
Bane
dSa · 7 games
57%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
29%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
jesv · 7 games
43%

HF

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 16 games
63%
Mirana
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 14 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 13 games
54%
Puck
Pucksignature
hAze · 13 games
62%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 12 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 10 games
60%
Io
Iosignature
Kaori · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
737 picks · 557 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
523 picks · 1050 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
455 picks · 594 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
429 picks · 772 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
370 picks · 197 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
361 picks · 392 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
321 picks · 368 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
317 picks · 625 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% HF
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total53% YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:39
YNT 53%HF 47%
The model gave 53% on YNT — the game was taken by HF in 35:13.
Game 2prediction missed19:34
YNT 53%HF 47%
The model gave 53% on YNT — the game was taken by HF in 34:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteYNT · 53%
Series resultYNT 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2