Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTwin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HFloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
YNT
No games played over 6 months.
HF
Tiny
nicky`cool · 9 games
Lycanoften banned
Actor · 7 games
Techiessignature
weebian · 7 games
Tusk
toshiyb · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Mastery · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 6 games
Mirana
SOhY · 6 games
Slarkoften banned
xannii · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
463 picks · 308 bans
Tusk
461 picks · 453 bans
Tiny
449 picks · 403 bans
Mirana
330 picks · 327 bans
Treant Protector
316 picks · 366 bans
Snapfire
280 picks · 143 bans
Ember Spirit
255 picks · 639 bans
Pangolier
240 picks · 606 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% YNT
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total62% YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:29
YNT 62%HF 38%
The model gave 62% on YNT — the game was taken by HF in 37:09.
Game 2prediction missed37:20
YNT 62%HF 38%
The model gave 62% on YNT — the game was taken by HF in 49:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteYNT · 62%
Series resultYNT 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2