Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTloss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MooN teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
YNT
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 10 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
jesv · 9 games
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 9 games
Tiny
DarkLord^ · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 8 games
Bane
dSa · 7 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
699 picks · 510 bans
Puck
503 picks · 983 bans
Dawnbreaker
415 picks · 526 bans
Marci
387 picks · 701 bans
Snapfire
384 picks · 196 bans
Winter Wyvern
327 picks · 322 bans
Zeus
301 picks · 316 bans
Monkey King
290 picks · 616 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% MooN team
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total59% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:17
YNT 41%MooN team 59%
The model gave 59% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 39:06.
Game 2prediction correct41:36
YNT 41%MooN team 59%
The model gave 59% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 45:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 59%
Series resultMooN team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2