Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTwin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
YNT
No games played over 6 months.
Natus Vincere Junior
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
346 picks · 270 bans
Marci
297 picks · 547 bans
Tusk
279 picks · 222 bans
Undying
273 picks · 455 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 468 bans
Primal Beast
230 picks · 527 bans
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 312 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 113 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% YNT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:15
YNT 55%Natus Vincere Junior 45%
The model gave 55% on YNT — the game was taken by YNT in 39:45.
Game 2prediction correct37:19
YNT 55%Natus Vincere Junior 45%
The model gave 55% on YNT — the game was taken by YNT in 43:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteYNT · 55%
Series resultYNT 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2