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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
YNTloss 0:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Nemiga Gamingwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

YNT

Mars
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 10 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
jesv · 9 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
44%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 9 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
DarkLord^ · 9 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 8 games
25%
Bane
Bane
dSa · 7 games
57%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
29%

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 18 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 17 games
59%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
VANSKOR · 15 games
40%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 14 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Kiritych · 14 games
43%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
VANSKOR · 13 games
54%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Heaven · 12 games
67%
Bane
Banesignature
VANSKOR · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
577 picks · 444 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
417 picks · 890 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
363 picks · 580 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
351 picks · 465 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
350 picks · 178 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
316 picks · 202 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
313 picks · 368 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
292 picks · 568 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total53% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
YNT 47%Nemiga Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 53%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1