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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTloss 0:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
No Monkey Businesswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

YNT

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
DarkLord^ · 9 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 8 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Dominic · 7 games
14%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
jesv · 7 games
29%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
jesv · 7 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 6 games
33%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 6 games
50%
Bane
Bane
dSa · 5 games
60%

No Monkey Business

Razor
Razoroften banned
xannii · 9 games
56%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Egor · 7 games
43%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
xannii · 7 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 6 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
illusion · 6 games
17%
Mars
Marsoften banned
MieRo · 6 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MieRo · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
xannii · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
427 picks · 271 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
412 picks · 551 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
370 picks · 429 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
343 picks · 703 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
306 picks · 453 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
306 picks · 412 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
271 picks · 398 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
261 picks · 310 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% No Monkey Business
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% No Monkey Business
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:5
YNT 36%No Monkey Business 64%
The model gave 64% on No Monkey Business — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 20:51.
Game 2prediction correct13:24
YNT 36%No Monkey Business 64%
The model gave 64% on No Monkey Business — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 22:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Monkey Business · 64%
Series resultNo Monkey Business 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2