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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
YNGBLDwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

YNT

Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
DarkLord^ · 6 games
33%
Sand King
Sand King
Malr1ne · 5 games
60%
Techies
Techies
jesv · 5 games
20%
Bane
Bane
dSa · 4 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jesv · 4 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Dominic · 4 games
0%

YNGBLD

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zenica · 5 games
40%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Rein · 3 games
33%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Rein · 2 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 2 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
zenica · 2 games
50%
Magnus
Magnus
zenica · 2 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Rein · 2 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
Rein · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
611 picks · 461 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
460 picks · 670 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
378 picks · 534 bans
44%
Puck
Puck
371 picks · 825 bans
54%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
315 picks · 397 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
303 picks · 483 bans
50%
Zeus
Zeus
263 picks · 348 bans
43%
Dazzle
Dazzle
260 picks · 163 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% YNGBLD
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% YNGBLD
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:25
YNT 48%YNGBLD 52%
The model gave 52% on YNGBLD — the game was taken by YNGBLD in 43:22.
Game 2prediction correct25:36
YNT 48%YNGBLD 52%
The model gave 52% on YNGBLD — the game was taken by YNGBLD in 45:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteYNGBLD · 52%
Series resultYNGBLD 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2