FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Young Bloodloss 0:2series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Young Blood
Morphlingoften banned
TraVins · 3 games
Ogre Magi
LOyd · 3 games
Dark Willow
dalul · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
TraVins · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
Red · 2 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Red · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
LOyd · 2 games
Shadow Shaman
dalul · 2 games
Execration
Marcioften banned
Tino- · 12 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 9 games
Lichsignature
cml · 9 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Tino- · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 8 games
Batrideroften banned
Shanks · 7 games
Dark Willow
Shanks · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
cml · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
483 picks · 625 bans
Muerta
465 picks · 402 bans
Batrider
459 picks · 580 bans
Clockwerk
443 picks · 553 bans
Tiny
429 picks · 497 bans
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 786 bans
Magnus
409 picks · 916 bans
Lion
396 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 48%
Hero pool strength53% Young Blood
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total84% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:27
Young Blood 31%Execration 69%
The model gave 69% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 28:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingTraVins
AlchemistAkashi
DoomRed
TerrorbladeTino-
MagnusMamangDaya
Nyx AssassinShanks
Shadow Shamandalul
Warlockcml
Crystal MaidenLOyd
Game 2prediction correct8:25
Young Blood 31%Execration 69%
The model gave 69% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 22:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackRed
LycanTino-
AbaddonTraVins
TerrorbladeAkashi
PuckMamangDaya
Phoenixcml
Muertadalul
ClockwerkShanks
LichLOyd
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 84%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2