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European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ASAKURAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 21 game
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 20 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 19 games
53%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 16 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Nefrit · 15 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Nefrit · 15 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 13 games
62%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pablo · 13 games
69%

ASAKURA

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 5 games
80%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 4 games
75%
Lion
Lion
slimeyao · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Palantimos · 4 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
333 · 3 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 3 games
33%
Lich
Lich
so bad · 3 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
470 picks · 384 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
430 picks · 547 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
389 picks · 496 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
385 picks · 203 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
382 picks · 619 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
373 picks · 419 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 582 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
341 picks · 875 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:38
Zero Tenacity 57%ASAKURA 43%
The model gave 57% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 51:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaStojkov
42% · 95 games52% · 91 game
Storm Spirityoung G
Storm Spirit
Lifestealer
LifestealerDaaD-
51% · 102 games49% · 29 games
Drow Ranger7jesu
Drow Ranger
Enigma
EnigmaNefrit
55% · 132 games44% · 113 games
BrewmasterInfernal
Brewmaster
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinPablo
58% · 141 game50% · 201 game
ClockwerkVaniLLl
Clockwerk
Lich
LichLeBronDota
46% · 103 games52% · 139 games
Lionslimeyao
Lion
Game 2prediction missed25:30
Zero Tenacity 55%ASAKURA 45%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 34:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackNefrit
57% · 151 game40% · 342 games
Morphling7jesu
Morphling
Monkey King
Monkey KingStojkov
53% · 172 games47% · 248 games
Ember Spirityoung G
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinyDaaD-
53% · 389 games51% · 271 game
MagnusInfernal
Magnus
Lion
LionPablo
53% · 306 games52% · 366 games
Shadow Demonslimeyao
Shadow Demon
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLeBronDota
47% · 353 games46% · 144 games
Elder TitanVaniLLl
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction missed20:44
Zero Tenacity 55%ASAKURA 45%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 36:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckStojkov
57% · 266 games54% · 126 games
Bristleback7jesu
Bristleback
Enigma
EnigmaNefrit
48% · 147 games49% · 74 games
Earthshakeryoung G
Earthshaker
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeDaaD-
46% · 164 games47% · 174 games
MagnusInfernal
Magnus
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinPablo
49% · 112 games53% · 242 games
Shadow Demonslimeyao
Shadow Demon
Lich
LichLeBronDota
49% · 84 games47% · 157 games
Crystal MaidenVaniLLl
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 57%
Series resultASAKURA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3