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European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ASAKURAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 25 games
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 24 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 21 game
38%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 19 games
47%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 17 games
41%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 17 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Nefrit · 16 games
31%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pablo · 16 games
69%

ASAKURA

Lion
Lion
slimeyao · 11 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 7 games
57%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
57%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 6 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
young G · 6 games
67%
Lich
Lichsignature
VaniLLl · 6 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Infernal · 6 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
482 picks · 419 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
436 picks · 231 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
435 picks · 541 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
434 picks · 567 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
434 picks · 513 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
422 picks · 759 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 582 bans
46%
Tiny
Tiny
370 picks · 421 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:18
Zero Tenacity 46%ASAKURA 54%
The model gave 54% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 34:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNefrit
54% · 243 games44% · 79 games
Phantom Assassin7jesu
Phantom Assassin
Puck
PuckStojkov
52% · 188 games50% · 202 games
Invokeryoung G
Invoker
Spectre
SpectreRetsu
52% · 55 games45% · 227 games
MarsInfernal
Mars
Lion
LionPablo
51% · 238 games50% · 55 games
Shadow Shamanslimeyao
Shadow Shaman
Dark Willow
Dark WillowLeBronDota
53% · 242 games49% · 403 games
ClockwerkVaniLLl
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed32:33
Zero Tenacity 47%ASAKURA 53%
The model gave 53% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 46:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaRetsu
43% · 179 games48% · 179 games
Terrorblade7jesu
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritStojkov
50% · 221 game46% · 282 games
DoomInfernal
Doom
Bristleback
BristlebackNefrit
56% · 194 games52% · 391 game
Tinyyoung G
Tiny
Phoenix
PhoenixLeBronDota
47% · 367 games53% · 306 games
Shadow Demonslimeyao
Shadow Demon
Lion
LionPablo
53% · 345 games51% · 148 games
LichVaniLLl
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 55%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2