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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Worick · 40 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Se · 39 games
56%
Warlock
Warlock
MoOz · 36 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 35 games
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 34 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
MoOz · 33 games
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 32 games
66%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Nefrit · 32 games
56%

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 21 game
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 21 game
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 18 games
56%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 17 games
24%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Corrupted · 15 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Ekki · 14 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Wein · 14 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
609 picks · 931 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
520 picks · 416 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
473 picks · 621 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
441 picks · 580 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
430 picks · 942 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
402 picks · 247 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 659 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
392 picks · 441 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total59% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:14
Zero Tenacity 56%AVULUS 44%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 42:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracWorick
45% · 266 games48% · 268 games
BeastmasterTA2000
Beastmaster
Largo
LargoNefrit
56% · 71 game49% · 301 game
Storm Spiritdualrazee
Storm Spirit
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKami
43% · 480 games58% · 213 games
BristlebackCorrupted
Bristleback
Disruptor
DisruptorMoOz
46% · 362 games60% · 175 games
Chenasdekor_r
Chen
Dark Willow
Dark WillowdEsire
50% · 195 games49% · 417 games
JakiroWein
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct32:17
Zero Tenacity 55%AVULUS 45%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 47:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerKami
48% · 183 games56% · 89 games
Troll WarlordTA2000
Troll Warlord
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWorick
52% · 276 games43% · 275 games
Queen of Paindualrazee
Queen of Pain
Underlord
UnderlordNefrit
52% · 155 games57% · 108 games
RazorCorrupted
Razor
Jakiro
JakiroMoOz
48% · 446 games53% · 217 games
Chenasdekor_r
Chen
Dark Willow
Dark WillowdEsire
44% · 230 games47% · 601 game
TuskWein
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 59%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2