European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Balu Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 18 games
Techies
Gothic- · 15 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 13 games
Linaoften banned
спортик · 11 games
Ringmaster
Hyugadoto · 11 games
Tinyoften banned
Yuragi · 11 games
Slardaroften banned
krol9ash · 10 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
krol9ash · 9 games
Balu Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
481 picks · 288 bans
Mirana
338 picks · 140 bans
Dark Willow
331 picks · 152 bans
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 462 bans
Centaur Warrunner
291 picks · 298 bans
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 438 bans
Clockwerk
271 picks · 200 bans
Winter Wyvern
270 picks · 246 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 25%
Hero pool strength61% Balu Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct53:26
PuckChamp 63%Balu Team 37%
The model gave 63% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 38:22.
Game 2prediction correct46:17
PuckChamp 63%Balu Team 37%
The model gave 63% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 32:58.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 63%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2