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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BTC Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 49 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 38 games
63%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 36 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 35 games
74%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 34 games
47%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 29 games
76%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 27 games
56%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
56%

BTC Gaming

Disruptor
Disruptor
Prada · 9 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Mnz · 6 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Mjz · 6 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Alone · 6 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mjz · 5 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Prada · 5 games
20%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Lumière · 5 games
40%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Mnz · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
611 picks · 537 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
534 picks · 408 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
479 picks · 541 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
474 picks · 239 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
469 picks · 412 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
393 picks · 244 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 1015 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
385 picks · 916 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 29%
Hero pool strength61% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:12
Zero Tenacity 78%BTC Gaming 22%
The model gave 78% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 34:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyKami
52% · 222 games47% · 329 games
TerrorbladeMnz
Terrorblade
Doom
DoomNefrit
56% · 106 games49% · 51 game
RikiAlone
Riki
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
55% · 210 games46% · 275 games
PhoenixPrada
Phoenix
Ringmaster
RingmasterdEsire
50% · 193 games44% · 169 games
RubickMjz
Rubick
Silencer
SilencerMoOz
57% · 93 games
Game 2prediction correct46:18
Zero Tenacity 77%BTC Gaming 23%
The model gave 77% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 30:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezKami
53% · 97 games47% · 141 game
Templar AssassinMnz
Templar Assassin
Sand King
Sand KingWorick
57% · 188 games50% · 146 games
Monkey KingAlone
Monkey King
Pangolier
PangolierNefrit
43% · 326 games53% · 339 games
HoodwinkMjz
Hoodwink
Techies
TechiesdEsire
52% · 48 games44% · 200 games
DisruptorPrada
Disruptor
Rubick
RubickMoOz
53% · 167 games
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 91%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2