CCT Season 2 Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:2
eSpoiledwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 24 games
Earthshaker
Pablo · 24 games
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 23 games
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 23 games
Warlock
LeBronDota · 23 games
Rubick
Pablo · 21 game
eSpoiled
Bane
asdekor_r · 9 games
Tuskoften banned
Wein · 9 games
Windranger
Wein · 8 games
Marci
Wein · 7 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 7 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 6 games
Svenoften banned
ssnovv1 · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
514 picks · 547 bans
Tiny
415 picks · 426 bans
Tusk
356 picks · 376 bans
Pangolier
343 picks · 510 bans
Terrorblade
322 picks · 705 bans
Nature's Prophet
309 picks · 558 bans
Dark Willow
307 picks · 195 bans
Storm Spirit
297 picks · 438 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:19
Zero Tenacity 60%eSpoiled 40%
The model gave 60% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 35:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenNande
Shadow Fiendssnovv1
InvokerStojkov
Chenasdekor_r
UndyingNefrit
BatriderWein
Pugnayamich
EnchantressSe
Game 2prediction missed14:9
Zero Tenacity 61%eSpoiled 39%
The model gave 61% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 36:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetNande
Medusassnovv1
PuckStojkov
Chenasdekor_r
BristlebackNefrit
Shadow ShamanWein
Snapfireyamich
UndyingSe
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 72%
Series resulteSpoiled 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2