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CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
eSpoiledloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 25 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
52%
Tiny
Tiny
Stojkov · 23 games
39%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 22 games
36%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 21 game
52%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 21 game
57%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Nande · 21 game
33%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 20 games
50%

eSpoiled

Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 11 games
45%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 9 games
44%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 9 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 9 games
44%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Wein · 9 games
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 8 games
38%
Windranger
Windranger
Wein · 8 games
25%
Sven
Svenoften banned
ssnovv1 · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
578 picks · 581 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
409 picks · 408 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
373 picks · 394 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 515 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
338 picks · 205 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
332 picks · 702 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
323 picks · 611 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
318 picks · 785 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% eSpoiled
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total71% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:32
Zero Tenacity 62%eSpoiled 38%
The model gave 62% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 34:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNefrit
47% · 109 games35% · 69 games
Svenssnovv1
Sven
Lina
LinaMirage
57% · 60 games47% · 185 games
BatriderWein
Batrider
Slark
SlarkNande
67% · 42 games40% · 30 games
Silencerasdekor_r
Silencer
Pudge
Pudgeyamich
64% · 9 games
Chen
ChenSe
65% · 64 games
Game 2prediction correct29:5
Zero Tenacity 60%eSpoiled 40%
The model gave 60% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 31:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
UnderlordNefrit
46% · 40 games55% · 176 games
Medusassnovv1
Medusa
Lifestealer
LifestealerNande
41% · 46 games54% · 327 games
BatriderWein
Batrider
Puck
PuckMirage
52% · 174 games51% · 91 game
Silencerasdekor_r
Silencer
Enchantress
EnchantressSe
43% · 100 games
Tusk
Tuskyamich
47% · 234 games
Game 3prediction correct34:20
Zero Tenacity 58%eSpoiled 42%
The model gave 58% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 33:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordNande
42% · 23 games54% · 80 games
Ursassnovv1
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirage
40% · 112 games58% · 276 games
Batriderasdekor_r
Batrider
Axe
AxeNefrit
32% · 38 games47% · 11 games
PudgeWein
Pudge
Enchantress
EnchantressSe
54% · 94 games
Lion
Lionyamich
54% · 100 games
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 71%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3