?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hydraloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 10 games
30%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 9 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 7 games
57%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
MikSa` · 7 games
57%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
LeBronDota · 7 games
43%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 6 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Stojkov · 6 games
67%
Lion
Lion
Thiolicor · 6 games
50%

Hydra

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ani-san · 7 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
43%
Underlord
Underlord
Actor · 7 games
29%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 6 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Actor · 5 games
40%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Ethereal · 5 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
ani-san · 5 games
20%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Actor · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
499 picks · 682 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
424 picks · 484 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
371 picks · 538 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
357 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
344 picks · 178 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
327 picks · 455 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
320 picks · 649 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
315 picks · 321 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:32
Zero Tenacity 51%Hydra 49%
The model gave 51% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Hydra in 40:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeDaaD-
43% · 123 games52% · 334 games
Tinyselfhate
Tiny
Void Spirit
Void SpiritStojkov
48% · 62 games50% · 146 games
MagnusActor
Magnus
Lycan
LycanMikSa`
59% · 21 game50% · 193 games
LionAstral
Lion
Rubick
RubickjAMES
50% · 289 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLeBronDota
52% · 178 games
Game 2prediction correct48:20
Zero Tenacity 55%Hydra 45%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 38:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDaaD-
52% · 130 games45% · 270 games
BeastmasterActor
Beastmaster
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMikSa`
51% · 67 games51% · 149 games
Earth Spiritselfhate
Earth Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
51% · 122 games48% · 199 games
MuertaAstral
Muerta
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLeBronDota
53% · 180 games
Lion
LionjAMES
54% · 119 games
Game 3prediction correct45:14
Zero Tenacity 54%Hydra 46%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 29:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingDaaD-
54% · 89 games43% · 83 games
Queen of Painselfhate
Queen of Pain
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMikSa`
58% · 58 games43% · 167 games
Primal BeastActor
Primal Beast
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
56% · 151 game51% · 224 games
Shadow DemonAstral
Shadow Demon
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiLeBronDota
53% · 36 games
Dark Willow
Dark WillowjAMES
49% · 140 games
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 55%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3