DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Jigglinwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Gyrocoptersignature
DaaD- · 19 games
Dark Willow
jAMES · 17 games
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 15 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 13 games
Terrorbladesignature
Nefrit · 13 games
Lich
LeBronDota · 12 games
Lion
Pablo · 12 games
Ogre Magi
LeBronDota · 12 games
Jigglin
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
402 picks · 496 bans
Muerta
373 picks · 286 bans
Tusk
369 picks · 414 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 557 bans
Batrider
325 picks · 384 bans
Beastmaster
322 picks · 725 bans
Lion
311 picks · 146 bans
Phoenix
294 picks · 256 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:35
Zero Tenacity 59%Jigglin 41%
The model gave 59% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Jigglin in 31:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 59%
Series resultJigglin 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1