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CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Kalmychatawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 26 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 23 games
39%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 23 games
39%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 21 game
52%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 21 game
57%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Nande · 21 game
33%
Warlock
Warlock
LeBronDota · 21 game
43%

Kalmychata

Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 11 games
73%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 9 games
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 9 games
67%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
not me · 7 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 7 games
29%
Axe
Axesignature
meLes · 6 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
meLes · 6 games
50%
Mars
Mars
fortniteMan · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
581 picks · 586 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
395 picks · 400 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
375 picks · 398 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 508 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
344 picks · 207 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
327 picks · 698 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
320 picks · 608 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
319 picks · 790 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Kalmychata
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:20
Zero Tenacity 56%Kalmychata 44%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 33:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNande
50% · 106 games42% · 111 games
SvenLowskill
Sven
Underlord
UnderlordNefrit
60% · 43 games44% · 86 games
Void Spiritxn丶e
Void Spirit
Chen
ChenSe
66% · 66 games45% · 156 games
Primal BeastCorrupted
Primal Beast
Invoker
InvokerMirage
59% · 100 games48% · 54 games
WeaverGilgir
Weaver
Marci
Marciyamich
45% · 92 games
Game 2prediction missed30:49
Zero Tenacity 58%Kalmychata 42%
The model gave 58% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 44:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNande
49% · 87 games60% · 228 games
DoomLowskill
Doom
Dark Seer
Dark SeerNefrit
48% · 135 games41% · 99 games
Leshracxn丶e
Leshrac
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMirage
49% · 144 games45% · 123 games
Primal BeastCorrupted
Primal Beast
Lich
LichSe
59% · 60 games49% · 246 games
Shadow ShamanGilgir
Shadow Shaman
Tusk
Tuskyamich
52% · 270 games
Game 3prediction missed32:41
Zero Tenacity 57%Kalmychata 43%
The model gave 57% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 46:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerNande
53% · 59 games54% · 83 games
UrsaLowskill
Ursa
Underlord
UnderlordNefrit
47% · 36 games39% · 89 games
Void Spiritxn丶e
Void Spirit
Invoker
InvokerMirage
45% · 95 games50% · 185 games
DawnbreakerCorrupted
Dawnbreaker
Enchantress
EnchantressSe
59% · 77 games39% · 10 games
PudgeGilgir
Pudge
Lion
Lionyamich
55% · 100 games
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 63%
Series resultKalmychata 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3