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CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Kalmychataloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 30 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 28 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
LeBronDota · 26 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nande · 24 games
58%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Nande · 22 games
32%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 21 game
57%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
yamich · 20 games
50%

Kalmychata

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 15 games
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Ankou · 13 games
62%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 13 games
62%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 12 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 11 games
73%
Axe
Axeoften banned
meLes · 10 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
521 picks · 549 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
385 picks · 229 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
361 picks · 414 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
337 picks · 869 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
328 picks · 484 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
321 picks · 904 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
320 picks · 302 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
289 picks · 642 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Kalmychata
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total59% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:14
Zero Tenacity 53%Kalmychata 47%
The model gave 53% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 33:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckMirage
43% · 230 games49% · 358 games
BristlebackWoE
Bristleback
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNefrit
44% · 275 games58% · 300 games
Monkey KingEthereal
Monkey King
Slark
SlarkNande
49% · 68 games55% · 200 games
Sand KingAnkou
Sand King
Dark Willow
Dark Willowyamich
48% · 201 game52% · 72 games
Dazzleraregods
Dazzle
Enchantress
EnchantressSe
49% · 156 games
Game 2prediction correct44:32
Zero Tenacity 54%Kalmychata 46%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 38:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNande
57% · 143 games48% · 299 games
TerrorbladeWoE
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierMirage
45% · 330 games45% · 288 games
InvokerEthereal
Invoker
Lycan
LycanNefrit
59% · 92 games50% · 304 games
DawnbreakerAnkou
Dawnbreaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSe
52% · 242 games49% · 184 games
Nature's Prophetraregods
Nature's Prophet
Dark Willow
Dark Willowyamich
48% · 268 games
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 59%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2