CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 24 games
Tiny
Stojkov · 23 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 21 game
Svenoften banned
Nande · 21 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 20 games
Earthshaker
Pablo · 20 games
Rubick
Pablo · 20 games
Level UP
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 13 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 11 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 9 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Palantimos · 8 games
Leshrac
Atoufix · 8 games
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 8 games
Miranasignature
Ponlo · 7 games
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
579 picks · 581 bans
Tiny
410 picks · 408 bans
Tusk
373 picks · 393 bans
Pangolier
347 picks · 515 bans
Dark Willow
337 picks · 204 bans
Terrorblade
331 picks · 703 bans
Nature's Prophet
323 picks · 612 bans
Puck
317 picks · 784 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total67% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:8
Zero Tenacity 59%Level UP 41%
The model gave 59% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 32:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkNande
Terrorbladerubikon155
BeastmasterNefrit
Dragon KnightMaTson
Queen of PainMirage
PhoenixPalantimos
EnchantressSe
MiranaPonlo
Tuskyamich
Faceless VoidAtoufix
Game 2prediction correct38:11
Zero Tenacity 61%Level UP 39%
The model gave 61% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 32:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckMirage
Terrorbladerubikon155
GyrocopterNande
UndyingPalantimos
BeastmasterNefrit
TinyMaTson
EnchantressSe
WarlockPonlo
Earthshakeryamich
Dark WillowAtoufix
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 67%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2